1972 Retirement, a type 2 error

The withdrawal amounts are adjusted for inflation.
Bengen’s Floor to Ceiling strategy
Vanguard’s strategy
Guyton & Klinger’s strategy
Clyatt’s 5/95 strategy
CAPE10 for 1972–1988
1973
=PMT(7.4%, 29, $1000000, $0)
=$84,682
=$1,000,000 - $84,682 = $915,318 left after the withdrawals
The market drops -26%
=$915,318 * (1 - 26%) = $677,335 left after the market drop
Calculating withdrawal with the old rate
=PMT(7.4%, 28, $677335, $0)
=$57,977
Calculating withdrawal with a new rate based on the new CAPE10
=PMT(12%, 28, $677335, $0)
=$84,832

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